Cap rates held while debt costs rose
CBRE's H2 2025 survey found all-property cap rates broadly steady even through Treasury volatility, while transaction volume rose about 19%. Cap rate isn't the number that moved. Debt cost is.
- CBRE's H2 2025 survey found all-property cap rates broadly steady through the second half of 2025, even with Treasury volatility, while transaction volume rose about 19%.
- The story sponsors keep telling, that cap rates are still compressing, isn't what the data shows anymore. What moved is debt cost.
- A stable cap rate with a higher debt constant means less proceeds at the same value, which is exactly what's showing up in our sizing this quarter.
- Sponsors underwriting to a compressing-cap-rate thesis are underwriting to a story that ended.
What happened in H2 2025
CBRE's survey of institutional buyers and sellers found all-property cap rates held broadly steady through the back half of 2025, even as Treasury yields moved. Transaction volume didn't stall waiting for cap rates to compress further, it rose roughly 19% over the period. The market repriced to a stable cap rate and moved on. It's debt service, not cap rate, that's doing the work on sizing now.
Why a stable cap rate still cuts proceeds
A flat cap rate holds asset value flat. It does nothing for the debt constant. At a higher rate, the same NOI supports less loan against the same value, whether the binding test is DSCR or debt yield. An acquisition priced on further cap rate compression is priced on a trend that has stopped.
What to underwrite instead
Underwrite to today's debt constant, not to a cap rate you expect to compress further. Run debt yield and DSCR at the rate available now, size proceeds off that, and treat any future cap-rate move as upside rather than a number baked into the ask. That's the difference between a deal that closes at the terms quoted and one that gets re-traded thirty days in.
"Volume rose 19% at a steady cap rate. The market didn't wait for compression, it re-priced to the debt cost that's available and transacted anyway."
Where this leaves acquisition underwriting
Treat cap rate as a value input, not a sizing input. The number that governs proceeds, LTV, DSCR, debt yield, all run off today's debt cost. A sponsor still modeling further cap-rate compression into their return is modeling a trend CBRE's own H2 2025 data says has stopped.